Coronavirus has stopped moviegoing, but what about when it’s gone?

Each day during this coronavirus pandemic, it looks like going back to the movies is growing further and further away.

The City of Los Angeles, many other municipalities and whole states have ordered theaters shut until at least the end of the month. Most of the spring’s scheduled major releases have been postponed indefinitely anyway; on Tuesday Marvel’s “Black Widow,” which was supposed to be the May 1 blockbuster kickoff to the summer movie season, joined “A Quiet Place Part II,” the 007 film “No Time to Die,” “Mulan” and others in release date limbo.

Universal announced Monday that three of its current theatrical features will be available on home pay-per-view Friday and its next movie, “Trolls World Tour,” on the same day it goes into theaters, April 10.

If there are any theaters left by then.

All of the national and local theater chains will be closing all venues this week if they haven’t already. With no new product in the pipeline and coming off of the second worst box-office weekend in 22 years (even the weekends immediately following the Sept. 11, 2001 terrorist attacks had higher grosses), what have they got to lose?

Hopefully, it won’t be as much as worst-case speculation – and at this point, it’s all speculation in this unprecedented situation, for every business large and small – supposes.

“As with other businesses that serve large groups of people, movie theaters have faced voluntary and mandated restrictions and closures,” a statement from the National Association of Theatre Owners said Tuesday. “The majority of movie theaters have now closed. This industry will continue to meet its responsibilities to the public and will abide by public health mandates and adapt to local conditions.”

The statement also tried to allay exhibitors’ fears that big studio moves like Universal’s would become the norm, when and if normalcy returns.

“To avoid catastrophic losses to the studios, these titles must have the fullest possible theatrical release around the world,” NATO noted, logically, especially in regard to the studios’ nine-figure tentpole investments. “While one or two releases may forgo theatrical release, it is our understanding from discussions with distributors that the vast majority of deferred releases will be rescheduled for theatrical release as life returns to normal.”

That makes sense in the long run. But different exhibition companies are striking different attitudes about closing their doors for now, and what it may mean for both their short- and long-term prospects.

“We are ever so disappointed for our movie-going guests and for our employee teams that the new CDC guidelines that Americans should not gather in groups larger than 10 people make it impossible to open our theatres,” Adam Aron, president and CEO of the nation’s largest theater chain, AMC, said in a statement issued Tuesday announcing all of the company’s sites would go dark for six to 12 weeks. “Still, the health and wellbeing of AMC guests and employees, and of all Americans, takes precedence above all else. We will continue to monitor this situation very closely and look forward to the day we can again delight moviegoers nationwide by reopening AMC movie theatres in accordance with guidance from the CDC and local health authorities.”

Greg Laemmle, who runs the eponymous local, eight-theater art-house chain his family started 82 years ago, struck a more understanding stance.

“It’s obviously a major impact on us and our employees,” said Laemmle, who explored selling the family business last year during a dip in the specialty film market. “It’s a major impact on our patrons who really enjoy seeing movies and are going to be missing that.

“It’s clearly the right thing to be doing from a public health standpoint, so I want to make clear that we’re fully supportive,” Laemmle continued. “But depending on the length of the closure, if it goes on too long, yeah, it’s going to be problematic.”

Laemmle noted that insurance policies generally exclude pandemics from business interruption coverage. And while the company owns some of its sites and rents others, mortgages have to be paid no matter the party.

Acknowledging that it’s too early to tell how this constantly changing situation will play out, the Santa Monica-based Milken Institute’s Center for Regional Economics and California Center’s executive director, Kevin Klowden, is nonetheless fairly convinced that when COVID-19 eventually does go away, Southern Californians will have fewer theaters to go to.

“It’s definitely going to hit the ones that are on the margin, there are a few that are going to be hit,” Klowden said. “The main issue is going to be, do the movie theaters get some kind of aid or assistance that allows them to stick through it. My biggest concerns are not the large chains, but the small and midsized ones, the same way that I’m concerned about restaurants and everybody else.

“And even if they get some sort of debt relief or temporary loan relief, how does it play out after that?” Klowden pointed out. “How do they dig themselves out again? I don’t have a good answer; I wish I did.”

Laemmle is cautiously optimistic that, as has ever been the case, product people want to see will come to the rescue of the exhibition sector.

“To the extent that it’s relatively short, we probably have the ability to emerge, and how strong we come back then just depends on the public,” Laemmle said of the shutdown. “But I’m hopeful that there will be a pent-up demand for moviegoing – and given the delay in release schedules, there’s going to be a lot of good film for people to see.”

If they haven’t already seen it online. Echoing NATO’s position, Paul Dergarabedian, senior media analyst for the Sherman Oaks media metrics firm Comscore, can’t imagine James Bond or “Black Widow” coming soon to anywhere but a theater near you. Well, also theaters far from you, too, as international box-office has neared or exceeded North American for most years of this century – and presents another compelling reason why expensive movies are unlikely to premiere online.

“People are thinking, does this mean a sea change?” Dergarabedian said of Universal’s, and to a more muted extent Warner Bros.’ and Disney’s, accelerated moving of theatrical features to digital platforms. “Is this the crossing the Rubicon moment where suddenly we’re going to see movies go straight to streaming or breaking the (90-day theatrical) window, so-to-speak? Well, most, particularly large-budget, movies have to go theatrical to recoup their production costs. And that’s why I think we’re seeing most of these movies just being moved, so they can take advantage of a better marketplace here and internationally.”

The upshot for people who like to go to the movies? Once this health crisis passes, don’t expect too much to change. Unless it does.

“We’re in a highly unusual time, there are steps and measures being taken that we’ve never seen before,” Dergarabedian observed. “Do I think this is going to change the way films are released in movie theaters? No, I don’t. But can changes be afoot that we don’t even know about yet? Absolutely.”

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